Expect the Unexpected and Other Advice for Weathering this Election
I probably don’t need to convince you that we are in for a bumpy next few months. Health experts are urging us to brace for a surge in Covid infections and death. The climate nightmare is turning into a fiery reality. Government officials are telling followers to stockpile ammunition. All this combined with RBG’s tragic death means there is barely bandwidth for the media to report on the latest mass shooting. In order to mentally prepare for the next few months it is crucial to take a step back and ask - what happens next?
Whatever happens, it will be easier to deal with if we have given it some forethought. The most obvious thing to focus on is the election on November 3rd, but if 2020 has taught us anything so far, it’s that unexpected events can change everything in an instant. Here are a few things to be mentally prepared for.
Covid gets really ugly. The virus might survive a little bit longer in the cold air. People may be slightly more likely to congregate inside or slightly less diligent with masking. Each of these can increase the spread.
Panic buying of food, ammunition, and toilet paper. The empty shelves we all experienced at the beginning of the pandemic could again become a reality.
Another police murder. Protests over the police murder of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Elija McClean, and others have waned in numbers and intensity since the peak this summer. Another episode of police violence could very easily bring people back to the streets.
Normalization of police checkpoints. If protests re-erupt, authorities may crack down hard. Bill Bar has suggested charging protestors with sedition. Chicago already has a habit of shutting down all major entrances to the city, raising bridges, and blockading intersections downtown.
False Flag Event. A false flag operation is an act of violence committed with the intention of pinning blame on someone else. It is used by political actors to gin up support for war or as an excuse to take away civil liberties from their opponents domestically. Hitler famously set parliament on fire and then used it as an excuse to assume dictatorial powers.
Spontaneous Political Violence. This has already occurred. At least 17 people have died amid the unrest following George Floyd's murder.
Organized Political Violence. Aside from seemingly random violence, there is the additional threat of organized violence. By this I mean people organizing themselves for the purpose of committing or threatening violence. Kyle Rittenhouse and the so called "patriot" militias who regularly show up to protests with assault rifles, bullet proof vests, and other tactical gear fall into this category.
Targeted Political Violence (real or perceived) - The assassination of any politician would send a shockwave through our system. But even a seemingly natural death could be problematic. The internet is already awash with outlandish conspiracy theories and second, third, and fourth level repercussions could be significant.
None of these are predictions. Each could potentially cause things to slip quickly out of control and this is exactly why we must think about them. The fact that we don't want them to happen does not mean that they won't. One of the most important things we can do right now is to talk about these possibilities with friends, family, and neighbors. We are all feelings these anxieties. We do not need to deal with them alone.
What I do predict is a very tense and long election season. Here are some specifics that I think are plausible or likely to occur. I’ve included my ballpark percentage likelihood for each, and where alternative outcomes are possible, I’ve labeled them A, B, C, etc.
1. More Democrats will vote by mail than Republicans (99%). This means many Democrat votes will not be counted until after election day
2. Violence on Election Day (20%). Long lines, frustrated voters, and a potentially heavy police presence could mean very high tensions on election day. A small fight could escalate to a violent arrest. An internet rumor regarding fraud could cause “patriot militias” to show up with guns to "protect" the election.
3A. Trump declares himself the winner on Election night (70%). If it appears he is ahead in the Electoral College on November 3rd, Trump will not wait to declare himself the winner. Biden's votes are more likely to come via the mail, so he is unlikely to concede.
3B. Trump declares the election was rigged on Election night (20%). If it appears he is behind in the Electoral College, Trump will declare that the election was rigged and therefore invalid.
3C. Trump concedes on election night (10%). If there is a clear landslide on election night, Trump may be forced do concede if his inner circle, Senate Republicans, and/or military leaders force his hand.
if no one concedes, continue to step 4
4A. Election officials or courts eventually declare Trump winner (25%). Biden will likely concede. There may be sporadic violence, which Trump will crush with an iron fist.
4B. Election officials or courts eventually declare Biden winner and there is a peaceful transition of power (20%). Having declared himself the winner, Trump tweets angrily for weeks as votes are counted. Finally declared the loser, hey may call for violence, but Twitter and facebook quickly shut down his account before anyone acts on it. His generals march into his office and inform him he will be removed by force if necessary. He reluctantly concedes.
4C. Election officials or courts eventually declare Biden the winner and there is a period of turmoil and sporadic violence followed by a Biden presidency (25%). Unfortunately, I think this is the most likely end game. I don’t believe Trump will concede under any circumstance. I think he will call for “patriots” to rise up against the evil democrats. If he loses the physical fight, eventually Trump might concede, perhaps making a deal to avoid prosecution as a traitor.
4D. Civil War (5%). There is no shortage of people advocating for a civil war already. Ammunition and guns are sold out across the country. The only reason this percentage isn’t higher is because I've retained an irrational optimism that cooler heads will prevail.
4E. Intervening Event (10%). I make no attempt to describe what this event could be. Let’s call it the 2020 wild card scenario. It could be a natural disaster, a false flag operation, or a spontaneous popular uprising. It could calm the situation or enflame it. Whatever it is, it could change the landscape in an instant.
Things do not look good. There are still paths forward, but we cannot afford to live in denial. Only one presidential candidate has clearly and unequivocally denounced political violence of any kind. The other has a history of encouraging violence and demonizing opponents as evil scum.
As Maya Angelou put it, "When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time." We cannot wish our way into calmer waters. We must stare the ugliness in the face, buckle down, and weather this storm, together.
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